This is an excellent piece from Eric Zorn. While it's impossible to predict the future, Zorn lays out some very logical reasons as to why Sen. Obama will win the Democratic nomination, despite being the underdog against front-runners Hillary Clinton and John Edwards.
From the Chicago Tribune:
We can't know if a silly gaffe or news of a previously
undisclosed indiscretion will turn Obama into an instant also-ran, or
if another terrorist attack here will give a huge boost to the most
hawkish candidates.
And yet. Call me nuts again, but here are
the eight reasons why 65 percent of more than 13,000 click voters at
chicagotribune.com this week were right when they said that Obama will
win the Democratic nomination:
1. His message will appeal to the better nature of voters.
Sure, Obama's call for "a different kind of politics" that seeks common
ground, advances shared values and disdains the bitter polarities of
partisanship makes Pollyanna look like a cynic. But it reflects a
passionate American fantasy--that we are better than all this querulous
wrangling and are ready to move beyond it.
2. He was an early foe of the war.
The charge that Obama lacks the experience to lead a nation will be
belied by what a colossal mess experienced leaders made of Iraq and how
their war on terror has turned the world into a more dangerous place.
As the unpopular "troop surge" only gets us deeper into the bloody muck
of intractable sectarian strife in the year ahead, Democrats, in
particular, will look for a candidate who exhibited geopolitical
foresight.
3. His race will be a plus.
Black voters
will turn out in huge numbers for Obama, no doubt. But, as others have
noted, many white Americans are eager to demonstrate to themselves and
to the world that we are evolved enough to elect a president of
African-American heritage. Their number will dwarf the number of
wild-eyed racist Democrats who'll vote only for whites.
4. He's likable.
I know, I know. We're electing a president, not a neighbor or a dining
companion. But Obama, a charismatic policy wonk, will strike undecided
voters as a thoughtful, engaged and self-deprecating guy who'd be a
good leader.
5. His team is tough.
The snarks in the
water have tried to stick Obama with the schoolyard nickname "Obambi"
to suggest that he's weak and naive. But he has assembled a seasoned
campaign crew that will not shy from political street fights.
6. He'll have no trouble raising money.
Obama's biggest fundraising problem is going to be keeping it seemly.
7. Zealots will drive voters into his camp.
The naked bigotry of critics who are now shrieking Obama's middle name
to suggest both that he's Muslim (he's not, he's Christian) and that
Muslims are inherently untrustworthy (they're not) is so repellent that
fair-minded people will feel inclined to support him if only to
repudiate such tactics and prove that Americans are above that sort of
nonsense. Those who like to remind us that "Obama rhymes with Osama"
will also be useful idiots.
8. His youth and star status will attract many young and non-traditional voters.
The celebrity hype has already nauseated world-weary political junkies.
Obama, 45, can let them barf. The enthusiastic entertainers and
tastemakers already behind his candidacy will sell him to new voters as
a fresh voice for the next generation.
There you go. Clip and save. Meet me back here next summer and we'll settle up the bet.
