Douglas Burns of the Carroll, Iowa Daily Times Herald writes that Sen. Obama can do better than expected in the Iowa caucuses.
It goes without saying that when Barack Obama is on the television screen or behind the political podium we see a black man.
That is, after all, what he is.
But
when you listen to Obama, the substance of thinking, the cadence of his
reasoning, his unassuming acceptance of people, you hear a Midwesterner.
It
is for this reason, as much as his Kennedyesque charisma, that Obama,
45, a Democratic U.S. senator from Illinois, a political mercury
rising, could capture the Iowa Caucuses should he launch a presidential
bid.
Current and
former top Iowa politicians and a one-time Clinton administration
appointee and Carroll native familiar with the inner workings of
campaigns in this state see Obama as a potentially strong candidate in
the Hawkeye State.
"What wins a caucus?" says former Republican
Congressman Jim Ross Lightfoot. "If it is charisma, Senator Obama has
the upper hand over all the Democrat contenders."
U.S. Sen. Tom
Harkin, an Iowa Democrat who ran for president in 1992, saw the Barack
effect up close and personal in Indianola this fall at Harkin's annual
steak fry. Trailed by a horde of media and circled like a popular
evangelist or rock star by well-wishers,
"I think Barack
Obama has a lot of potential in many areas," Harkin told The Daily
Times Herald at the time. "He has the potential of being a great
senator, being a unifier in terms of bringing better race relations to
this county."
Brad Knott, a
1976 Kuemper Catholic High School graduate who worked on President Bill
Clinton's first campaign and has served as an adviser to Iowa
Democrats, says at this point he is backing Obama.
"I really
like Barack Obama," Knott, now a University of Maryland professor who
maintains close ties to Iowa politics, said. "He is my guy right now.
If he keeps the car between the ditches - no big mistakes and assuming
he has 'reasonably' liberal politics - I think he will do well in the
Iowa caucuses."
One recent poll
places Obama third in the Iowa Caucuses running. The Sioux City Journal
reports that former vice presidential candidate John Edwards is the top
choice among Iowa Democrats likely to attend the 2008 presidential
caucuses with 36 percent of those asked, according to an Environmental
Defense poll.
U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., finished second
with 16 percent and Obama had 13 percent. Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack
finished fourth at 9 percent.
For his part, Knott tells The Daily Times Herald that caucus attendees are generally liberal, older and want to win.
"Most
recent national campaigns are won in the Midwest," Knott said. "Right
now the Illinois senator is looking like a winner, knows the Midwest,
is liberal enough and - most important for some - he is not Hillary."
Knott says Obama can transcend race in Iowa.
But even when
Obama does take broadsides and carefully crafted insults, the
inevitable slings and arrows of politics at the highest level, he will
retain a rare connectivity to voters. He understands people, not
because, as Bill Clinton, he feels their pain in some abstract Baby
Boomerish sense.
Obama connects with others for the simple
reason that he knows himself and is confident in his strengths and
comfortable with his flaws.
This journey has made him remarkably open to others.
Obama's also willing to take an internal monologue, the rolling over of
ideas and motivations and self-doubts, and make them public in two
best-selling books.
Obama's also a
politician who can write rich dialogue in his books, which means he has
the ear and skill to give others a voice. It's not something one can
fake.
In Indianola
this past September, before a mostly white audience of 3,000 people,
Obama held the crowd in rapt attention. In fact, it was so quiet at
times that you could hear the leaves rustling in a gentle wind.
On the key issues of the day, Obama publicly opposed the invasion of Iraq in a rally in 2002 before the war started.
"We understand that fundamentally our effort in Iraq has been misconceived," Obama said.
But
people shouldn't read the Obama family as pacifists, he said, noting
that his grandfather, the man he wrote about extensively in his memoir,
fought in Gen. George Patton's Army in World War II.
"There are
times when we have to ask all of us to sacrifice on behalf of future
generations," Obama said. "But this is not one of those times."
Reading his books reveals rather clearly what some of his priorities would be.
Moreover, there seems a sense among many that Barack Obama is a man for the time.
"He reminds me in many ways of Kennedy in 1960," Theodore Sorensen, JFK's speechwriter and adviser, told Newsweek.